European Journal of Preventive Medicine

Research Article | | Peer-Reviewed |

Grey Modeling Method for Predicting the Occurrence and Epidemic Time of Major Human Diseases

Received: 27 December 2023    Accepted: 6 January 2024    Published: 18 January 2024
Views:       Downloads:

Share This Article

Abstract

The occurrence of a major epidemic is a catastrophic event that may occur at any time in the development of human society. It is uncertain and unavoidable. If human beings can predict the occurrence and epidemic time of major diseases, people will take the initiative in the prevention and control of major diseases, make response plans in advance, calmly face the sudden occurrence of major epidemics, so as to reduce the run on medical resources and short-term shortage, reduce the death of patients, maintain social peace, and maintain the stable development of economy and society. The grey system theory, which was founded by Chinese scholar Deng Julong in the 1980s, is a new method to study the few data, poor information and uncertain events. The purpose: to introduce the grey theory into the prediction of the occurrence and epidemic time of major epidemics, and to find a new scientific, simple and fast method to predict the occurrence and epidemic time of major epidemics. Research methods: Using the time of occurrence and epidemic of major epidemics in China recorded in the Chinese Plague Chronicles and other books in history, the occurrence and epidemic time numbers of major epidemics (plagues) were extracted from the three periods A, B and C, and the original data sequence was formed through sequential arrangement. Then, grey modeling is carried out with the modeling steps of GM(1,1) and the error and accuracy of the model are checked. Research results: The occurrence and epidemic times of major epidemics in periods A, B and C were selected, and the GM(1.1) grey modeling was carried out on the obtained data in the order of year number, and the corresponding grey prediction models of periods A, B and C were obtained respectively: ; and (see the text for details of the models), the simulation errors of the three models were tested, and the relevant parameters all reached the level of first-class qualified models, and the simulation accuracy was 99.80%, 99.93% and 99.98%, respectively, reaching the qualified level. The prediction and verification of the occurrence and epidemic time of the n+1 major epidemic in the period of A and B were carried out respectively, and the accuracy rate reached 99.88% and 99.91%, both of which achieved satisfactory results.

DOI 10.11648/j.ejpm.20241201.12
Published in European Journal of Preventive Medicine (Volume 12, Issue 1, February 2024)
Page(s) 9-12
Creative Commons

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.

Copyright

Copyright © The Author(s), 2024. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Major Human Epidemic, Occurrence and Epidemic, Greytheory, Modeling, Prediction, Method

References
[1] Li Ming Quan. Accumulatively Confirmed Cases Used for Grey Modeling Prediction of the Medium and Long Term Future Epidemic Trend of Infectious Diseases. European Journal of Preventive Medicine 11.3(2023).
[2] Li Ming Quan. Research on the Application of Grey Modeling Theory in the Prediction of Future Epidemic Trend of Infectious Diseases. European Journal of Preventive Medicine 11.1(2023).
[3] Li Ming Quan. Prevention and Control Effects of Different Prevention and Control Mechanisms on the Epidemic of COVID – 19. European Journal of Preventive Medicine, Vol. 10, No. 6, 2022, pp. 110-114. The doi: 10.11648/j.& 20221006.11.
[4] Deng Julong, Foundation of Grey Theory, Huazhong University of Science and Technology Press, 2002.02.
[5] Liu Sifeng Xie Naiming et al. Grey System Theory and Its Application, Science Press, 2008.
[6] Dang Yaoguo Liu Sifeng Wang Zhengxin Lin Yi et al. Research on Decision Model of Grey Prediction, Science Press 200.12.
[7] Zhou Zhiyuan Chinese PlagChronicles www.zhouzhiyuan.com May 2022. Peking.
[8] Introduction of twelve epidemics in China after the liberation of yi Jiangnan on December 30, 2022. Network.
[9] Zhang Hu. Research and Application of short-term prediction model of time series [D]. Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 2013.
[10] Hu Kun. Research on Grey prediction evaluation method and Application [D]. Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2004.
[11] Jia Lingyun. Grey increment model of population prediction and its application [D]. Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, 2006.
[12] MA Le. Research on Grey Theory Modeling Method [D]. Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, 2005.
[13] Guo Deyong, Li Nianyou, PEI Dawen, Zheng Dengfeng. Coal and gas outburst prediction grey theory - neural network [J]. Journal of Beijing, 2007, No. 156(4): 354-357. The DOI: 10.13374/j.i ssn1001-053 - x. 2007.04.002.
[14] Zhang Li-Ting, Zhu Guo-Rui, ZHOU Shi-Jian, et al. Grey modeling experiment of time series [J]. Journal of Wuhan University (Engineering Edition).
[15] Sun Yang, Sun Haitao, Yang Fan et al. Analysis of the development trend of China's primary medical and health institutions based on gray prediction [C] // General Medical Quality Control Alliance. First national BBS paper sets the general medical quality. [publisher unknown], 2023: 1. The DOI: 10.26914 / Arthur c. nkihy. 2023.024182.
Cite This Article
  • APA Style

    Quan, L. M. (2024). Grey Modeling Method for Predicting the Occurrence and Epidemic Time of Major Human Diseases. European Journal of Preventive Medicine, 12(1), 9-12. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ejpm.20241201.12

    Copy | Download

    ACS Style

    Quan, L. M. Grey Modeling Method for Predicting the Occurrence and Epidemic Time of Major Human Diseases. Eur. J. Prev. Med. 2024, 12(1), 9-12. doi: 10.11648/j.ejpm.20241201.12

    Copy | Download

    AMA Style

    Quan LM. Grey Modeling Method for Predicting the Occurrence and Epidemic Time of Major Human Diseases. Eur J Prev Med. 2024;12(1):9-12. doi: 10.11648/j.ejpm.20241201.12

    Copy | Download

  • @article{10.11648/j.ejpm.20241201.12,
      author = {Li Ming Quan},
      title = {Grey Modeling Method for Predicting the Occurrence and Epidemic Time of Major Human Diseases},
      journal = {European Journal of Preventive Medicine},
      volume = {12},
      number = {1},
      pages = {9-12},
      doi = {10.11648/j.ejpm.20241201.12},
      url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ejpm.20241201.12},
      eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ejpm.20241201.12},
      abstract = {The occurrence of a major epidemic is a catastrophic event that may occur at any time in the development of human society. It is uncertain and unavoidable. If human beings can predict the occurrence and epidemic time of major diseases, people will take the initiative in the prevention and control of major diseases, make response plans in advance, calmly face the sudden occurrence of major epidemics, so as to reduce the run on medical resources and short-term shortage, reduce the death of patients, maintain social peace, and maintain the stable development of economy and society. The grey system theory, which was founded by Chinese scholar Deng Julong in the 1980s, is a new method to study the few data, poor information and uncertain events. The purpose: to introduce the grey theory into the prediction of the occurrence and epidemic time of major epidemics, and to find a new scientific, simple and fast method to predict the occurrence and epidemic time of major epidemics. Research methods: Using the time of occurrence and epidemic of major epidemics in China recorded in the Chinese Plague Chronicles and other books in history, the occurrence and epidemic time numbers of major epidemics (plagues) were extracted from the three periods A, B and C, and the original data sequence was formed through sequential arrangement. Then, grey modeling is carried out with the modeling steps of GM(1,1) and the error and accuracy of the model are checked. Research results: The occurrence and epidemic times of major epidemics in periods A, B and C were selected, and the GM(1.1) grey modeling was carried out on the obtained data in the order of year number, and the corresponding grey prediction models of periods A, B and C were obtained respectively: ;  and  (see the text for details of the models), the simulation errors of the three models were tested, and the relevant parameters all reached the level of first-class qualified models, and the simulation accuracy was 99.80%, 99.93% and 99.98%, respectively, reaching the qualified level. The prediction and verification of the occurrence and epidemic time of the n+1 major epidemic in the period of A and B were carried out respectively, and the accuracy rate reached 99.88% and 99.91%, both of which achieved satisfactory results.},
     year = {2024}
    }
    

    Copy | Download

  • TY  - JOUR
    T1  - Grey Modeling Method for Predicting the Occurrence and Epidemic Time of Major Human Diseases
    AU  - Li Ming Quan
    Y1  - 2024/01/18
    PY  - 2024
    N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ejpm.20241201.12
    DO  - 10.11648/j.ejpm.20241201.12
    T2  - European Journal of Preventive Medicine
    JF  - European Journal of Preventive Medicine
    JO  - European Journal of Preventive Medicine
    SP  - 9
    EP  - 12
    PB  - Science Publishing Group
    SN  - 2330-8230
    UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ejpm.20241201.12
    AB  - The occurrence of a major epidemic is a catastrophic event that may occur at any time in the development of human society. It is uncertain and unavoidable. If human beings can predict the occurrence and epidemic time of major diseases, people will take the initiative in the prevention and control of major diseases, make response plans in advance, calmly face the sudden occurrence of major epidemics, so as to reduce the run on medical resources and short-term shortage, reduce the death of patients, maintain social peace, and maintain the stable development of economy and society. The grey system theory, which was founded by Chinese scholar Deng Julong in the 1980s, is a new method to study the few data, poor information and uncertain events. The purpose: to introduce the grey theory into the prediction of the occurrence and epidemic time of major epidemics, and to find a new scientific, simple and fast method to predict the occurrence and epidemic time of major epidemics. Research methods: Using the time of occurrence and epidemic of major epidemics in China recorded in the Chinese Plague Chronicles and other books in history, the occurrence and epidemic time numbers of major epidemics (plagues) were extracted from the three periods A, B and C, and the original data sequence was formed through sequential arrangement. Then, grey modeling is carried out with the modeling steps of GM(1,1) and the error and accuracy of the model are checked. Research results: The occurrence and epidemic times of major epidemics in periods A, B and C were selected, and the GM(1.1) grey modeling was carried out on the obtained data in the order of year number, and the corresponding grey prediction models of periods A, B and C were obtained respectively: ;  and  (see the text for details of the models), the simulation errors of the three models were tested, and the relevant parameters all reached the level of first-class qualified models, and the simulation accuracy was 99.80%, 99.93% and 99.98%, respectively, reaching the qualified level. The prediction and verification of the occurrence and epidemic time of the n+1 major epidemic in the period of A and B were carried out respectively, and the accuracy rate reached 99.88% and 99.91%, both of which achieved satisfactory results.
    VL  - 12
    IS  - 1
    ER  - 

    Copy | Download

Author Information
  • Nanchong City Committee Office of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, Nanchong, China

  • Sections